For a few generations, a small number of companies who fund and publish content have relied on an extensive network of distributors and resellers to sell their books, extract and return cash. They don’t consider the ultimate viewer/reader the customer, in their minds the distributor/reseller is.
So, it ends in one big, fat stale-mate. Nobody wants to blink, because both sides know the change that’s necessary will mean a huge amount of creative destruction and, very likely short-term financial hit, while publishers build the machinery and attention-assets necessary to make up the loss of a potential immediate hard-stop in the current mode of distribution. Of course, resellers can’t really hard stop, or they’d have nothing to sell.
Thus the big fat game of chicken…
I don’t know if there’s a viable future for distributors or brick and mortar resellers (beyond collectibles and gift books) in a world that’s going digital at break-neck speed. It’s nearly impossible to preserve a value proposition as a middleman in a digital world.
But, there is a future for publishers IF they embrace the opportunity to build huge, vertical-specific communities, prime them with regular non-book value and establish direct relationships with ginormous numbers of readers. That will become the new value proposition that replaces distribution as the big sell for authors. And, it’ll let publishers be able to finally reclaim the ability to tell authors, “hey, you just write, we’ve got your market right here.”
Because even if authors can go indie/self with increasing ease, most still don’t want to. They just want to hide out in some cafe and write. I know this firsthand, because I run a business that trains the few who are willing to embrace the massive opportunity to become not just authors, but enterprises and powerhouse book marketers. Most, however, given the option to just write, will.
Meanwhile, the direct-to-consumer market, driven by amazon and super-savvy enterprise-oriented authors, keeps chipping away and increasing the realization that change is inevitable and it’s going to hurt, at least for a short while, and very likely eliminate a huge number of people in the middle.
At some point, the actual pain of not changing will become greater than the perceived pain of changing, and the publishers will say screw it and make an aggressive move to go direct and serve the people they need to be serving to stay alive. Could be a year, or maybe five. Nobody knows the real time-frame. But that move will have to happen.
In the end, publishers who finally accept the need to build and/or acquire their own digital attention assets will be a lot better off because of it. But, nobody wants to endure the inevitable disruption to the current paradigm until they have to. Until the publishing waters are maroon with digital blood.
This is the future. The only question is when.
What say you?
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